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MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q1 2017
In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, last week the UK gave formal notice to the European Union that it would formally exit the EU in two years. The UK’s unprecedented decision will have unexpected consequences. On the home front, the Trump presidency continues to deliver unwelcome surprises. A key example: Trump’s baffling cabinet picks, which include Steve Mnuchin, a 17-year Goldman Sachs executive, as Secretary of the Treasury. So much for “draining the swamp.” Trump (fortunately) failed to deliver on another campaign promise: to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, which some attribute to the administration’s lack of political skill and experience. It seems business interests, not the wellbeing of our citizens, are the thrust of this administration’s agenda. On the flip side, the Democratic resistance learned some lessons from the Tea Party movement and rallied its base to participate actively in the budget and legislative processes. This new activism means the budget, as well as any pending tax reforms, will need bipartisan support to proceed.
Beyond the political headlines, market indices continued to reach new levels. Buoyed by rising corporate profits and expectations of corporate tax cuts, the S&P climbed 5.5% for the quarter, and both the Dow and Nasdaq reached—and held—historic highs. The Dow hit the magic 20,000 mark in January, and consumer inflation topped the Fed’s 2% target rate for the first time in five years, which drove March’s interest rate increase of . percent (25 basis points). While rate hikes sometimes cause an unfavorable reaction in the market, this increase seems to have been priced in, and investors nodded their collective approval and moved on.
All of these factors, combined with unfailing investor confidence, added up to deliver a solid quarter, with each of the indexes listed below posting impressive gains over their fourth-quarter closing values.
One notable star in the market constellation was Apple (AAPL), which reported record Q1 revenue and earnings. It is counterintuitive, but Apple is now classified as a value stock rather than a growth stock. Based on its market cap, Apple has another claim to fame: the stock is the largest component in both the Dow and the S&P 500—an interesting indicator of the power of innovation and globalization, and the importance of technology moving forward.
As we begin Q2, the fundamentals are certainly in place for continued economic growth. Employment, hourly earnings, disposable income, and consumer spending are all on the rise, and consumer prices are up 2.7% for the year—the highest rate of growth in almost five years, and solidly above the Fed’s 2.0% target for inflation. Even the core rate, which excludes energy, is holding steady at 2.2% since February 2016. As 2017 progresses, we look forward to continuing to leverage the power of investing to support your personal financial goals.