“Global Stocks Post Strongest First Half in Years, Worry Investors.” That Wall Street Journal headline from the last day of Q2 caused more than a few investors (perhaps you included) to ponder “what’s next?”
As we closed out the first half of the year, most indices were continuing to rise at a pace we haven’t seen since 2009. Despite certain political and global events that would have dampened investor exuberance in “the old days,” investors have been nothing but enthusiastic, and the economic data has certainly supported that fervor. Tumbling oil prices have driven down energy prices and inflation. The housing market seems to be gaining steam. And while growth in the GDP, inflation, and consumer spending has slowed, they are still showing modest increases. All of that, plus expected tax cuts, strong corporate balance sheets, and central bank support, seems to have outweighed any negative news and buoyed both the US and Global indices. The result: the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 are up 8.03%, 14.07%, and 8.24% respectively; and the Global Dow is up 9.54%. That strong economy spurred The Federal Reserve Bank to raise the Federal Funds rate another 1/4 point.
So what can investors do to assuage their worries about the future? Jason Zweig’s interview with Peter L. Bernstein offers some answers. In the interview (which took place years before the Great Recession) Zweig asks: How can investors avoid being shocked, or at least reduce the risk of overreacting to a surprise? Bernstein responded with this wisdom:
“Understanding that we do not know the future is such a simple statement, but it’s so important,” he said. “Survival is the only road to riches… I view diversification not only as a survival strategy but as an aggressive strategy because the next windfall might come from a surprising place. I want to make sure I’m exposed to it. Somebody once said that if you’re comfortable with everything you own, you’re not diversified.”
Berstein then posed this question to investors: “Can you manage yourself in a bubble, and can you manage yourself on the other side?”
I’m happy to say that our approach is consistent with Bernstein’s Yoda-like guidance. We continue to actively diversify our client portfolios, reallocating fixed income with international and global bonds, inflation-protected securities, and real estate. “Survival is the only road to riches.” And while no one knows what the future holds, we promise not to overreact—no matter what surprises come our way. ~