Market Highlights Q2 2018
The second quarter of the year can be called a lot of things, but boring certainly isn’t one of them.
Long before the trade war between the United States and China began in earnest in early July, Trump’s threats of tariffs on Chinese imports began to rattle the world, and threats of retaliation from the Chinese added fuel to the fire. As the battle of words escalated, investors braced for a storm. But while there was certainly some significant volatility, favorable corporate earnings reports helped calm some of the global economic angst, and investors were able to maintain a steady ship and see higher-than-anticipated gains in Q2. Most of the major indexes ended the quarter ahead of their Q1 closing values. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained over 6.0%, and the small caps of the Russell 2000 grew by almost 7.5%. The S&P 500 also closed the quarter ahead of its first-quarter closing values, and the Dow finished the quarter up by less than 1.0%. Prices for 10-year Treasuries rose by the end of the quarter, pulling yields down by 13 basis points.
Interestingly, even as Trump’s trade war moved from threat to reality in the first week of July, the market has continued to maintain an upward trajectory, at least for the moment. Trade skirmishes between the United States, China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union are likely to remain a reality for some time, but those tensions have so far been offset by a strong US jobs market, steady corporate earnings, and increased household spending. Global tensions may be here to stay, but consumers and investors appear to be confident in the economy—and confidence is always a plus when it comes to investor returns.
As we move into the second half of 2018, expect the tensions to continue. Business has accepted the trend towards open markets and reduced trade barriers. The US economy has been strengthened along with our global trading partners. Businesses will eventually adapt to whatever conditions prevail, but current events are disruptive and time and money will be spent to reposition production and sourcing of materials. Outcomes of trade wars are unpredictable, but if the extent of reactions in the past weeks is any indication, the impact will be complicated. Nations are big ships and don’t turn on a dime, but slowly, slowly, we will experience changes in geopolitics. Yet whatever occurs around the globe, our team is monitoring your plan and your investments closely. And if you have any questions or concerns along the way, we’re always here to help keep you on course.